Downward revision 結果共3筆

Taiwan’s 2023 GDP growth forecast has been lowered to 1.42%, the lowest in 14 years, due to weaker exports and private investment. Year-end bonuses for Taiwanese workers have also been affected, with the average amount shrinking to 1.08 months’ worth of salary, hitting a 10-year low. The financial industry leads in bonus payouts with an average of 1.83 months’ salary, followed by the semiconductor industry at 1.38 months. The healthcare services industry averages just 0.97 months of salary, while the accommodations and food services sector lags further behind at only 0.59 months. Despite the downward revision, the DGBAS remains optimistic for 2024, forecasting a GDP growth rate rebound to 3.35%. However, challenges such as the Ukraine-Russia war, the Israel-Palestine conflict, and ongoing inflation may pose risks to the global economy. Looking ahead to 2024, local job banks predict pay increases in 47.5% of companies, with an average salary hike of 3.2%, slightly lower than in 2023. Experts caution that Taiwan’s economic recovery may not be as swift as hoped.

Taiwan Central Bank Governor Yang Chin-long addressed the Legislative Yuan’s Finance Committee, leaving open the possibility of further interest rate hikes. While rates in the U.S., U.K., Europe, Canada, and Australia are near their peak, Taiwan is approaching its high point. Previous inflation spikes were caused by typhoon impacts, leading to speculation about rate hikes. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3% in October. The Central Bank’s council members unanimously decided to temporarily halt rate raises, but some members agreed to suspend hikes for only one quarter, suggesting aggressive responses to future inflation are possible. Market watchers are observing whether interest rate hikes might resume in December if inflation surpasses 3%. Yang attributed the current inflation to typhoon impacts, particularly rising vegetable and fruit prices, and promised close observation of rate raises in the fourth quarter. Economic growth is expected to remain above 2% this year, but the fourth quarter may see a downward revision to 1%.

The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) has revised Taiwan’s third-quarter GDP growth forecast to 2.32%, down from the previous estimate of 2.54%. The revision is attributed to a slowdown in private capital formation, including government and public enterprises’ fixed investments and stock changes. However, the DGBAS official, Wang Tsui-hua, stated that Taiwan’s economy is still improving, with a third-quarter GDP growth rate of 10.47% on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (saar). If fourth-quarter forecasts are maintained, this year’s GDP will be revised downward to 1.55%.